read online books The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (English Edition)Autor Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Carcier.co

Bestselling Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb Continues His Exploration Of Randomness In His Fascinating New Book, The Black Swan, In Which He Examines The Influence Of Highly Improbable And Unpredictable Events That Have Massive Impact Engaging And Enlightening, The Black Swan Is A Book That May Change The Way You Think About The World, A Book That Chris Anderson Calls, A Delightful Romp Through History, Economics, And The Frailties Of Human Nature See Anderson S Entire Guest Review Below Guest Reviewer Chris AndersonChris Anderson Is Editor In Chief Of Wired Magazine And The Author Of The Long Tail Why The Future Of Business Is Selling Less Of More Four Hundred Years Ago, Francis Bacon Warned That Our Minds Are Wired To Deceive Us Beware The Fallacies Into Which Undisciplined Thinkers Most Easily Fall They Are The Real Distorting Prisms Of Human Nature Chief Among Them Assuming Order Than Exists In Chaotic Nature Now Consider The Typical Stock Market Report Today Investors Bid Shares Down Out Of Concern Over Iranian Oil Production Sigh We Re Still Doing It Our Brains Are Wired For Narrative, Not Statistical Uncertainty And So We Tell Ourselves Simple Stories To Explain Complex Thing We Don T And, Most Importantly, Can T Know The Truth Is That We Have No Idea Why Stock Markets Go Up Or Down On Any Given Day, And Whatever Reason We Give Is Sure To Be Grossly Simplified, If Not Flat Out Wrong Nassim Nicholas Taleb First Made This Argument In Fooled By Randomness, An Engaging Look At The History And Reasons For Our Predilection For Self Deception When It Comes To Statistics Now, In The Black Swan The Impact Of The Highly Improbable, He Focuses On That Most Dismal Of Sciences, Predicting The Future Forecasting Is Not Just At The Heart Of Wall Street, But Its Something Each Of Us Does Every Time We Make An Insurance Payment Or Strap On A Seat Belt The Problem, Nassim Explains, Is That We Place Too Much Weight On The Odds That Past Events Will Repeat Diligently Trying To Follow The Path Of The Millionaire Next Door, When Unrepeatable Chance Is A Better Explanation Instead, The Really Important Events Are Rare And Unpredictable He Calls Them Black Swans, Which Is A Reference To A Th Century Philosophical Thought Experiment In Europe All Anyone Had Ever Seen Were White Swans Indeed, All Swans Are White Had Long Been Used As The Standard Example Of A Scientific Truth So What Was The Chance Of Seeing A Black One Impossible To Calculate, Or At Least They Were Until , When Explorers Found Cygnus Atratus In Australia Nassim Argues That Most Of The Really Big Events In Our World Are Rare And Unpredictable, And Thus Trying To Extract Generalizable Stories To Explain Them May Be Emotionally Satisfying, But It S Practically Useless September Th Is One Such Example, And Stock Market Crashes Are Another Or, As He Puts It, History Does Not Crawl, It Jumps Our Assumptions Grow Out Of The Bell Curve Predictability Of What He Calls Mediocristan, While Our World Is Really Shaped By The Wild Powerlaw Swings Of Extremistan In Full Disclosure, I M A Long Admirer Of Taleb S Work And A Few Of My Comments On Drafts Found Their Way Into The Book I, Too, Look At The World Through The Powerlaw Lens, And I Too Find That It Reveals How Many Of Our Assumptions Are Wrong But Taleb Takes This To A New Level With A Delightful Romp Through History, Economics, And The Frailties Of Human NatureChris AndersonBestselling Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb Continues His Exploration Of Randomness In His Fascinating New Book, The Black Swan, In Which He Examines The Influence Of Highly Improbable And Unpredictable Events That Have Massive Impact Engaging And Enlightening, The Black Swan Is A Book That May Change The Way You Think About The World, A Book That Chris Anderson Calls, A Delightful Romp Through History, Economics, And The Frailties Of Human Nature See Anderson S Entire Guest Review Below Guest Reviewer Chris AndersonChris Anderson Is Editor In Chief Of Wired Magazine And The Author Of The Long Tail Why The Future Of Business Is Selling Less Of More Four Hundred Years Ago, Francis Bacon Warned That Our Minds Are Wired To Deceive Us Beware The Fallacies Into Which Undisciplined Thinkers Most Easily Fall They Are The Real Distorting Prisms Of Human Nature Chief Among Them Assuming Order Than Exists In Chaotic Nature Now Consider The Typical Stock Market Report Today Investors Bid Shares Down Out Of Concern Over Iranian Oil Production Sigh We Re Still Doing It Our Brains Are Wired For Narrative, Not Statistical Uncertainty And So We Tell Ourselves Simple Stories To Explain Complex Thing We Don T And, Most Importantly, Can T Know The Truth Is That We Have No Idea Why Stock Markets Go Up Or Down On Any Given Day, And Whatever Reason We Give Is Sure To Be Grossly Simplified, If Not Flat Out Wrong Nassim Nicholas Taleb First Made This Argument In Fooled By Randomness, An Engaging Look At The History And Reasons For Our Predilection For Self Deception When It Comes To Statistics Now, In The Black Swan The Impact Of The Highly Improbable, He Focuses On That Most Dismal Of Sciences, Predicting The Future Forecasting Is Not Just At The Heart Of Wall Street, But Its Something Each Of Us Does Every Time We Make An Insurance Payment Or Strap On A Seat Belt The Problem, Nassim Explains, Is That We Place Too Much Weight On The Odds That Past Events Will Repeat Diligently Trying To Follow The Path Of The Millionaire Next Door, When Unrepeatable Chance Is A Better Explanation Instead, The Really Important Events Are Rare And Unpredictable He Calls Them Black Swans, Which Is A Reference To A Th Century Philosophical Thought Experiment In Europe All Anyone Had Ever Seen Were White Swans Indeed, All Swans Are White Had Long Been Used As The Standard Example Of A Scientific Truth So What Was The Chance Of Seeing A Black One Impossible To Calculate, Or At Least They Were Until , When Explorers Found Cygnus Atratus In Australia Nassim Argues That Most Of The Really Big Events In Our World Are Rare And Unpredictable, And Thus Trying To Extract Generalizable Stories To Explain Them May Be Emotionally Satisfying, But It S Practically Useless September Th Is One Such Example, And Stock Market Crashes Are Another Or, As He Puts It, History Does Not Crawl, It Jumps Our Assumptions Grow Out Of The Bell Curve Predictability Of What He Calls Mediocristan, While Our World Is Really Shaped By The Wild Powerlaw Swings Of Extremistan In Full Disclosure, I M A Long Admirer Of Taleb S Work And A Few Of My Comments On Drafts Found Their Way Into The Book I, Too, Look At The World Through The Powerlaw Lens, And I Too Find That It Reveals How Many Of Our Assumptions Are Wrong But Taleb Takes This To A New Level With A Delightful Romp Through History, Economics, And The Frailties Of Human NatureChris Anderson


8 thoughts on “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (English Edition)

  1. Klaus Klaus says:

    I ll save you the purchase and reading of this overly hyped pamphlet, so here s the author s main message I am so smart Everyone else is an idiot The end The rest is just old wine in new skins to anyone who has than half a brain and has ever attended an introductory statistics course, even if the author s tongue in cheek references to professions that use quantitative analysis which quickly become boring, dull or outright derogatory want you to think otherwise.


  2. jefke0815 jefke0815 says:

    Die H rbuch Version ist sehr zu empfehlen Angenehme Stimme und eine Story, die sich etwas berraschend, da komplex gut anh rt Taleb pflegt einen jovialen Stil, legt seine Gedanken messerscharf dar Dabei teilt er links und rechts aus, wei aber auch mit Selbstironie umzugehen Das Augenzwinkern h rt man nicht nur zwischen den Zeilen Inhaltlich ist die Pointe schnell erz hlt Es ist unm glich exakte Prognosen abzugeben, weil wir Prognosen nur aus Erfahrungen st tzen k nne und Unbekanntes definitionsgem nicht kennen k nnen Dies allein ist nicht problematisch, zu Problem wird es nur, wenn man Entscheidungen in dem Glauben daran trifft Risikovorsorge zu betreiben Je sicherer wir uns mit Prognosen sind, desto verheerender ist es, wenn wir berrascht werden Das gilt bei der St dteplanung genau wie bei der Altersvorsorge Taleb deutet eine interessante Umdeutung des Vorsorgenarrativs an, dass zum weiteren Nachdenken anregt Ein gro er Spa


  3. 12th-century.se Kunde 12th-century.se Kunde says:

    Having ordered this book I encountered a big dissapointment at first as it took sometime to get into the subject Once he did get there it was marvellous He speaks so much about the black swan phenomena and how it is missed a lot of times in our age The importance of it is also underlined, and how it changed his life and the life of many people without them knowing that they have encountered a black swan It gives one a critical thinking of the way we are doing things and why it may not be working as we would like for it to work Definitely worth the time of getting through the first couple of pages


  4. B.D. — identitär! B.D. — identitär! says:

    Wer meint, die Welt sei berechenbar und die Materialisation der Gausschen Glockenkurve sei das Mass der Dinge k nnte sich irren Taleb ist ohne Zweifel einer der wenigen Genial Bekloppten des Planeten und ein Nerd der Premiumklasse Die Aufbereitung des Themas Wahrscheinlichkeit ist ohne Beispiel und sollte jeden ber hren, der sich von rein akademischer Stochastik verschaukelt f hlt In Zeiten, wo Klimabesorgte mathematische Gewissheit in Gauss Funktionen suchen eine echte Alternative in Perspektive Ein sogenanntes le must Ein Punkt Abzug f r seine biographischen selbszentrierten Knallerbsen.


  5. Endi Zhupani Endi Zhupani says:

    This book will completely change the way you think about life It will turn you from someone who tries to predict the outcome of actions, into someone who takes actions and positions one s self to take advantage of unpredictable outcomes.


  6. Toomas Toomas says:

    Thank you


  7. hubert hubert says:

    Another way of looking at reality, perhaps a way.


  8. 12th-century.se Kunde 12th-century.se Kunde says:

    Great read and a very Inspiring book